All sessions are held in the BIS Conference Centre, 1 Victoria Street, London, SW1H 0ET






08:50 - 09:40

Registration and Coffee



09:40 - 10:10

1.      Opening Session



Opening remarks



Dr Veronica Bowman



Conference Chair






Prof. Bernard Silverman



Chief Scientific Advisor to the Home Office



10.10 - 11:10

2.      Calculating Uncertainty



Where the numbers meet the road - uncertainty at the frontiers of finance



Prof. Michael Mainelli



The Z/Yen Group



Dealing with uncertainty in risk and decision analysis



Prof. Simon French



University of Warwick



11:10 - 11:35




Statistical tools for analysing uncertainty in computer model predictions



Prof. Jeremy Oakley



University of Sheffield



12:05 - 13:00

3.      Case Studies



Scenario planning and anti-fragility



Mr Rob Solly






Understanding and communicating uncertainty around virtual engine tests generated from Bayesian model averaging



Dr Andrew Rose






Dashboards to calculate, explore and communicate uncertainty



Mr Martin Owen






13:00 - 13:45




13.45 - 15:15

4.      Communicating Uncertainty



Communicating risk and uncertainty - the need for a strategic approach



Prof. Nick Pidgeon



University of Cardiff



Communicating the Uncertainty in Everyday Weather Forecasting



Mr Paul Davies



Met Office Chief Meteorologist



Exploration of tsunami risks through mapping, movies and uncertainty quantification of flooding surfaces



Dr Serge Guillas



University College London



15:15 - 15:40




15.40 - 16:50

5.      Case Studies



Informing the public health response to a disease outbreak caused by an aerosolised release of a biological agent



Mr Joseph Egan



Public Health England



Independent thinking: uncertainty and risk from single points of failure



Mr Rob Ashmore






Decision making under uncertainty in the retrofit analysis of the UK housing stock: implications for the Green Deal



Dr Ruchi Choudhary



University of Cambridge



Communicating change and uncertainty: development of new guidance for producers of official statistics



Mr Glenn Everett



Office for National Statistics



16:50 - 17:30

6.      Keynote



Presenting uncertainty



Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter



Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge



17:30 - 19:00

      Posters and Wine Reception








09:00 - 11:00

4.      Breakout Sessions - Talks




Four problem areas will be outlined and explored within separate breakout sessions.  These problem areas have been carefully chosen so that they will benefit from examination by an expert audience and ways forward are expected to be identifiable within the timeframe.  Attendance at a session is encouraged to broaden understanding and initiate collaboration. This session will cover presentations relevant to the problem area.






11:00 - 12:30

5.      Breakout Sessions - Discussions




Focussed discussions on the four problem areas will be undertaken with the aim of outlining potential ways forward and areas of required research and collaboration. Where possible focus groups will be set up to move these areas forward. Coffee will be served during this session.